On the Road to the Hydrogen Economy

THE ERA OF fossil fuels will come to be seen a gaussian blip of a bygone age: exploration, extraction . . . and gradual depletion.

In the 21st Century, fossils fuels will be conserved for heating in remote areas and for industrial chemical feedstocks (many hydrocarbons will be manufactured).

The strategic resources of the 21st Century will be water and food.

As the global population escalates from its present 6 billion+ towards 12 or 14 billion by mid-century, the world's resources will re-evaluate: water as an energy source will become tomorrow's "oil" in terms of its strategic importance.

In many parts of the world, today's giant oil refineries will come to be replaced by desalination plants - powered, not by oil, but by clean, renewable, energy sources. This is a vision of a future - not decades away - but immediately ahead, and those far-sighted among today's energy companies are already realigning their global strategies.

Today's petro-dollar revenues are needed to make that investment, with the knowledge that a stake in the Hydrogen Economy is for good.

In the future, overland transport - passenger and trade - will be facilitated by low CO2-emission electricity generated by fuel cells and hydroelectric power supplemented by renewable energy sources - wind, tidal, and solar power - differentiated by regional geographical factors, with lucrative export markets for the residuals.

The Hydrogen Economy is based on electricity rather than combustion. The energy resource is water (kinetic, potential, and chemical)) - from which electric power is derived. Since a main source of hydrogen is derived from the cracking of water, the primary resource is again water. The hydrogen gas extracted in this way will be used in fuel-cells for automotive power.

The age of oil, then, has essentially put a brake on alternative energy resource development, but that era is coming to an end, even in the presence of the world's remaining, still-massive oil reserves.

By mid-century, the promise of fusion - the ultimate in (elemental) hydrogen power - will be come to be realised.

Again, with isotopes of hydrogen as the fuel, water is the resource. The new technology will not, though, relieve electric-car congestion - "the greatest, quietest traffic jams in history."

In the Hydrogen Economy, rail transport will emerge as the clear winner.

Overland rail technology is able to deploy electric energy over a distance for mass transport in ways that other modes cannot emulate. As the new century unfolds, governments worldwide may come to realise that national rail networks - with fuel cells for back-up - will need to be converted for overhead electric cableways.

On this scale, there is considerable potential for retraining and expansion of the workforce away from the dominant services sector, though this, too, will expand to accommodate and support the regeneration of national networks.

A significant political and economic windfall presents itself to policy makers worldwide.

The tram will make a big comeback in the world's major cities.

Urban transport systems based on the new technologies will become major assets with tax yields to off-set governments' soaring welfare bills and pension demands.

On a global scale, the multi-modal transport network of future will be powered by, and help sustain, the hydrogen economy. © James A. Oliver 2000

Posted: 2 November 2000

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